Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF An aircraft owner has been paying into an engine program for 11 years. Every invoice paid. More than $1 million contributed. The entire airplane is now worth roughly $3 million. And the overhaul those payments are supposed to protect him from is still four to five years away. So he asks Jason Zilberbrand a deceptively simple question: “At this point, am I buying protection—or [...]

September 1 Values Are In — and the Numbers Don’t Match the Headlines Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF The September 1 VREF value revision is complete. And for the first time this year, Jason Zilberbrand can put both halves of the market together: Transaction volume. And: Aircraft values. The result is not a simple bull market or bear market. It is a market that has split sharply by aircraft [...]

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF One of the most recognizable names in general aviation appears to have changed in a way almost nobody announced. Jason Zilberbrand discovered it by clicking a tab on an ordinary corporate website. At the top of the page: Luscombe Mooney Aircraft Company. One masthead. Two historic aircraft brands. One of those brands supports a fleet of roughly 11,000 Mooney aircraft. The other belonged to [...]

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Two numbers: $656,688. And: $1,101,694. Same asset class. Same week. Nearly identical examples. One number reflects the statistical benchmark built from actual recorded transactions. The other is what a seller is asking today. The gap? Approximately 68%. And there are examples asking even more. The asset is a Ferrari 812 GTS—but this episode is not really about Ferraris. It is about something aviation professionals [...]

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF An $8 million Citation CJ4 is sitting on a ramp. The owner isn’t flying it. He isn’t even in the country. A line guy hooks up a tug, gets distracted, and tows the airplane into a hangar improperly. Forty seconds later, the damage is done. The aircraft is repaired correctly, returned to service, and made completely airworthy. But when it comes out the other side, [...]

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF The Challenger 3500 is routinely presented as proof that the business aircraft market is on fire. There are waiting lists. There are no aircraft publicly available. Buyers are supposedly willing to pay premiums. And brokers frequently cite the model as evidence of an exceptionally strong super-midsize market. There is just one problem: The Challenger 3500 has only completed one known owner-to-owner resale in the history [...]

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aviation professionals scrutinize maintenance invoices, fuel bills, appraisals, and aircraft operating costs down to the last dollar. But how closely do they examine the organizations collecting their membership dues? In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason goes somewhere most aviation media will not go on the record. He opens the public IRS filings of the industry’s largest alphabet organizations and asks [...]

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Most aircraft buyers ask the same question: What is this airplane worth today? Almost nobody asks the question that may matter more: What will it be worth when I’m ready to get out? In this mailbag episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason answers a question from Paul Bordeaux, Chief Pilot at Hargrove Engineers and Constructors: How should a buyer evaluate future demand [...]

Podcast: The Truth About the MarketHost: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREFMore than 700,000 people.More than 10,000 aircraft.One small city in Wisconsin.For one week, Wittman Regional becomes the busiest airport in the world.Most people call Oshkosh an air show.Jason calls it something else:the largest aircraft transaction event on the planet that nobody calls a transaction event.Deals get discussed in campgrounds.Deals get started in vendor hangars.Deals happen standing in line for a bratwurst.And far too many of them are [...]

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Right now, somewhere in America, a broker is listing an aircraft that will sell before the ad finishes uploading. Across town, another broker is cutting the price for the third time on the same model year. So is the market up? Or is the market down? Jason says that is the wrong question. The right question is: Which market? In this episode of The [...]