September 1 Values Are In — and the Numbers Don’t Match the Headlines

Podcast: The Truth About the Market
Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF

The September 1 VREF value revision is complete.

And for the first time this year, Jason Zilberbrand can put both halves of the market together:

Transaction volume.

And:

Aircraft values.

The result is not a simple bull market or bear market.

It is a market that has split sharply by aircraft generation.

Year-to-date business jet transaction volume is down almost 19% versus the same point in 2025.

Light jets are down 18.5%.

Midsize jets are down 25.5%.

Large jets are down 13.3%.

And overall transaction activity has essentially round-tripped back to 2020 COVID-era levels.

But price is telling a more complicated story.

Across 658 business-jet model years revised on September 1:

421 went down.
230 went up.
7 were flat.

The market did not collapse.

It did not rally.

It tore in half.

In this episode:

  • Why business jet transaction volume has fallen back toward COVID-era levels
  • How the 2025 recovery appears to have reversed in 2026
  • Why transaction volume tends to move before aircraft values do
  • What changed in the September 1 VREF fair-market-value revision
  • Why legacy midsize aircraft took one of the hardest hits
  • How 122 consecutive legacy midsize model years all moved lower
  • Why current-production super mids moved in exactly the opposite direction
  • How current-production large-cabin flagships gained nearly 7% as a group
  • Why previous-generation large-cabin aircraft moved lower while their newer replacements appreciated
  • What it means when the market begins pricing obsolescence more aggressively
  • Why the age penalty is shrinking in some large-cabin aircraft while growing in light and legacy midsize jets
  • How OEM delivery backlogs are pushing buyers toward newer pre-owned aircraft
  • Why the old question “How’s the market?” no longer has a useful answer without knowing the exact aircraft
  • What current inventory levels say about buyer versus seller leverage
  • Why the seller-buyer standoff that defined much of 2026 is beginning to resolve
  • And why it is resolving in opposite directions at opposite ends of the market

The volume warning came first

Jason has argued throughout 2026 that the market would adjust in sequence:

Volume first.
Days on market second.
Price last.

That sequence is now visible.

Light-jet closings are down sharply from their 2021 peak.

Midsize transaction volume is now running below the comparable 2020 COVID-year pace.

Large cabin remains the strongest of the three categories, but even that segment is meaningfully below peak transaction activity.

The unusual 2021–2022 market was not the historical norm.

But many owners, lenders, brokers, and buyers began treating those years as though they were.

September 1 represents the point where that assumption began showing up directly in published values.

The real dividing line: current vs. legacy

The biggest takeaway from this revision is not weight class.

It is generation.

Legacy midsize aircraft fell approximately 5.1%, with every model year in the group revised downward.

Current-production super mids, meanwhile, rose approximately 4.1%, with nearly every model year moving higher.

Large cabin shows the same pattern.

Current flagships rose approximately 6.9% as a group.

Previous-generation large-cabin aircraft declined approximately 3.4%.

Jason’s conclusion:

The market repriced obsolescence.

Being the current airplane became more valuable.

Being one generation behind became more expensive.

Midsize is the canary

Midsize remains the weakest major segment in the market.

Why?

Because the midsize buyer is often the most economically sensitive.

A light jet may be the entry point.

A large-cabin aircraft may be driven by mission and extraordinary wealth.

But a midsize or super-mid purchase is often the discretionary corporate decision that gets delayed when boards lose confidence.

Companies charter.

Trade down.

Move to fractional ownership.

Wait for rates to fall.

Or simply defer the purchase.

Each of those decisions removes a transaction.

Some of that demand may not be deferred at all—it may be permanently leaving whole-aircraft ownership.

That is why Jason calls midsize the canary in business aviation’s coal mine.

And right now, the signal is difficult to ignore.

Why averages can mislead you

One of the strongest lessons from the September revision is that broad category averages can hide enormous differences.

A current-production super-mid can be appreciating while an older aircraft in the same broadly defined category is declining.

A new-generation Falcon can move one direction while the model sitting beside it on the ramp moves the opposite direction.

Put both into one “midsize” or “large-cabin” average and you can create a number that accurately describes neither airplane.

The useful question is no longer:

“What is midsize doing?”

It is:

“What is my model, my generation, and my model year doing?”

What sellers should know

If you own a legacy midsize aircraft or an older light jet, the September revision changes the negotiating table.

The buyer is no longer simply arguing from opinion.

The lender may now be pulling a published number that supports the buyer’s side.

Jason’s advice:

Price to the market you are in, not the market you remember.

A stale listing can become increasingly expensive through carrying costs, maintenance, insurance, inspection accruals, and further market depreciation.

Chasing the market down often costs more than pricing correctly at the beginning.

What buyers should know

There is more leverage in legacy midsize and older light jets.

But lower values do not automatically mean bargains.

If an entire generation is moving lower while transaction volume is weak, that can indicate a demand problem, not a temporary pricing accident.

At the top of the market, the opposite problem exists.

If OEM delivery positions remain scarce, waiting for the perfect current-production large-cabin aircraft may simply mean paying more later.

What lenders and fleet planners should know

Legacy midsize residual assumptions deserve immediate attention.

The sequence Jason has discussed all year has now completed:

Volume weakened.
Days on market stretched.
Values followed.

And the lack of dispersion across legacy midsize is particularly important.

This is not a handful of distressed aircraft skewing an average.

The entire bucket moved.

For lenders holding exposure to older Hawkers, Excels, Sovereigns, Learjets, G150s, Falcon 50s, Citations, and similar aircraft, Jason argues that residual assumptions deserve another look this quarter.

Where does the market go next?

Jason lays out both sides.

The bull case:

Rate relief brings financing-dependent buyers back.

Year-end bonus depreciation accelerates Q4 activity.

OEM backlogs continue driving buyers into late-model pre-owned aircraft.

The September markdown becomes the bottom for legacy airplanes.

The bear case:

Weakness spreads from legacy midsize into more late-model light jets and previous-generation large cabin aircraft.

Inventory continues climbing.

Years of deferred sellers eventually seek liquidity at the same time.

And the correction becomes broader.

Jason’s expectation:

Q4 should improve—but full-year transaction volume will remain well below 2025.

Legacy midsize likely remains the weak spot.

Current-production flagships should remain supported as long as OEM delivery positions stay constrained.

And the split between current aircraft and the generation behind them may widen before it narrows.

The bottom line:

For most of 2026, price held while transaction volume absorbed the weakness.

That is no longer the case.

The price side has started moving.

But not in one direction.

The market is rewarding scarcity, current production, strong support, and difficult-to-obtain aircraft.

At the same time, it is becoming far less forgiving of age, legacy support, and weaker buyer demand.

So stop asking:

“How’s the market?”

Ask:

“What is happening to my exact aircraft?”

Because the September 1 revision makes one thing clear:

The market doesn’t care what you paid. It only cares what it’s worth.

And as of September 1, it changed its mind about a lot of airplanes.

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VREF it before you make the call.

The market doesn’t care what the website says…

It only cares what the record shows.

Fly safe. Stay smart.