Podcast: The Truth About the Market
Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF

The post-COVID aircraft market is over.

Not cooling.
Not pausing.
Not “normalizing” in the way people like to say when they want to soften the truth.

Over.

In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason breaks down the Q2 2026 market numbers and explains why the aircraft market has fully unwound from the extraordinary conditions of 2021 and 2022.

The headline is simple:

April 2026 transaction volume was weak.

Very weak.

Business aviation closings came in far below April 2025, April 2024, and dramatically below the post-COVID acceleration seen in April 2022.

And that matters because listings tell stories.

Transactions tell reality.

Right now, reality is showing slower participation, longer decision cycles, more selective capital, disciplined buyers, and a market that is no longer rewarding urgency for urgency’s sake.

In this episode, we cover:

  • Why April 2026 transaction volume is one of the weakest April readings of the last decade
  • How current closings compare to 2025, 2024, and the extraordinary post-COVID market of 2022
  • Why transaction volume tells more truth than listings, asking prices, or scraped internet data
  • Why the post-COVID market has fully unwound
  • How buyers have become more disciplined and less willing to chase aircraft just because inventory exists
  • Why capital markets are underwriting risk again
  • How lenders are scrutinizing assets more closely before approving deals
  • Why light jets remain resilient even as transaction volume pulls back
  • How light jets are benefiting from buyers moving away from twin turboprops and twin piston aircraft
  • Why efficient lift still matters in a more disciplined market
  • Why elevated asking prices in light jets do not tell the whole story
  • Why the super midsize market deserves serious attention
  • How super midsize aircraft have seen some of the most meaningful pricing pressure in the market
  • Why super mids sit at the intersection of financing sensitivity, affordability, and capital discipline
  • Why large cabin aircraft remain highly selective due to narrower buyer pools and enormous capital commitments
  • How turboprops remain strong utility aircraft, even as inventory rises and selling cycles lengthen
  • Why piston aircraft remain historically strong, even as transaction activity softens
  • How total business jet and turboprop inventory has recovered from post-COVID lows but remains below pre-pandemic levels
  • Why today’s market is defined by slower transactions, selective buyers, longer decision cycles, and disciplined capital
  • Why aircraft no longer sell simply because they exist
  • Why buyers are evaluating maintenance exposure, residual value risk, and mission fit more carefully
  • Why social media narratives around “off-market aircraft” often exaggerate scarcity
  • Why many so-called off-market opportunities are really just manufactured exclusivity
  • How cash buyers are gaining leverage as lenders require larger down payments
  • Why some aircraft now require 25, 30, or even 40 percent down
  • How the Iran conflict and fuel shock are changing operating assumptions
  • Why fuel prices may become one of the defining aviation topics of 2026
  • How higher fuel, parts, logistics, maintenance, training, and charter costs compound across ownership
  • Why operating economics are now central to aircraft acquisition decisions
  • Why aircraft values are returning to traditional depreciation curves in many categories
  • How legacy aircraft, Hawkers, CJ-series aircraft, and older vintage categories continue facing pressure
  • Why current production aircraft from Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Embraer remain comparatively strong
  • Why the piston market continues to hold up better than many expect
  • Why summer seasonality could deepen the slowdown into Q3

Jason also explains why operating cost visibility is no longer optional.

Purchase price gets the attention.

Operating cost determines whether ownership is sustainable.

That is why VREF has released its new Operating Cost Calculator inside VREF Online, giving owners, buyers, brokers, lenders, flight departments, and advisors a way to model operating costs directly inside the same platform they already use for aircraft values.

Because aircraft ownership is not just about buying the airplane.

It is about managing capital, managing risk, and understanding the long-term economics of ownership.

The bottom line:

The aircraft market is not broken.

It is recalibrating.

The extraordinary conditions that defined aviation several years ago have faded.

What remains is a market increasingly driven by discipline.

Discipline around pricing.
Discipline around financing.
Discipline around maintenance exposure.
Discipline around operating economics.
Discipline around mission fit.
Discipline around liquidity.

That may not create the excitement of 2021.

But sustainable aviation was never built on excitement.

It was built on fundamentals.

And fundamentals matter.

For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and aviation professionals worldwide, subscribe to VREF Online.

Fly safe. Stay smart.