Podcast: The Truth About the Market
 Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF
 Length: ~35 minutes
 Theme: Why aircraft aren’t selling — and what fair market, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation values really mean when the market slows down

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jason Zilberbrand takes a hard look at what happens when aircraft stop moving — not just in the air, but in the resale market.
 From piston singles and turboprops to light jets, days-on-market have tripled since 2022, and many owners are still pricing aircraft like it’s 2021.
 Jason breaks down how to interpret real market data, why “seller expectation lag” is slowing deals, and what every owner, buyer, and lender needs to understand about fair market, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation values in today’s environment.

In This Episode

  • Why aircraft sit on the market — and how the slowdown is showing across categories
  • The difference between Fair Market Value (FMV), Orderly Liquidation Value (OLV), and Forced Liquidation Value (FLV)
  • What lender portfolios and repossessions reveal about market stress
  • The top six reasons aircraft don’t sell — from high engine times to missing logbooks
  • How unrealistic pricing and seller denial are distorting the market
  • Why cosmetic neglect, outdated avionics, and incomplete records can kill a deal
  • What owners can do now to maintain value and liquidity in a cooling market

Key Takeaways

  • The 2021 boom is over. Pricing must follow reality, not nostalgia.
  • FMV ≠ listing price. In this market, true fair value can be 10–20% below asking.
  • Liquidation values matter. Lenders use OLV and FLV to gauge real collateral risk.
  • Engine time is still king. Looming overhauls attract bottom feeders, not retail buyers.
  • Logs sell planes. Missing or incomplete documentation can erase financing options.
  • Cosmetics count. Paint, interior, and presentation drive first impressions — and offers.

Jason’s Truth

“Price follows demand. Demand follows confidence. Sellers who ignore real data are the ones who sit. If you’re still pricing like it’s 2021, you’re already behind.”

The Top 6 Reasons Aircraft Sit

  1. High engine times or upcoming overhauls – scare off retail buyers, attract wholesalers
  2. Outdated or inoperative avionics – upgrade costs can exceed aircraft value
  3. Incomplete or foreign-language logbooks – kill financing and insurance confidence
  4. Cosmetic neglect – poor paint, corrosion, or visible damage deter buyers instantly
  5. Unrealistic pricing – sellers anchored to boom-era comps lose months of market time
  6. Poor presentation and marketing – bad photos or weak listings drive perception down

Market Context

  • Days on Market: Tripled for Bonanzas, SR22s, and similar piston singles since 2022
  • Turboprop & Light Jet Segment: Showing same trend — longer cycles, tighter credit, higher operating costs
  • Interest Rates & Insurance: Continue to pressure affordability and slow absorption

Valuation Insights

  • Fair Market Value (FMV): Theoretical “willing buyer, willing seller” price — no compulsion
  • Orderly Liquidation Value (OLV): Mild compulsion — auction or distressed sale, typically 25–40% below FMV
  • Forced Liquidation Value (FLV): Full distress — no reserve auction, often 50–60% below FMV

In slow markets, FMV can begin behaving like OLV — leverage shifts to buyers, and patience (or denial) determines who sells.

Mentioned in This Episode

  • American Bonanza Society Webinar — “Aircraft Value Trends and What Beech Owners Need to Know” (Nov 11, 2025)
  • ASA Chicago Chapter Webinar — “Hanging Your Shingle: How to Earn a Living as an Aircraft Appraiser” (Nov 14, 2025)
  • VREF Online — Aircraft value data, depreciation modeling, and operating cost insights

Brought to You By

VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals.
 Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters.
 Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance at www.vref.com.