The Market Feels Different Now—and the Numbers Prove Why

Here we are in the final stretch of 2025, and the aviation market feels like it’s moving at two speeds at once. Some aircraft are flying off the shelf faster than we’ve seen in years. Others are sitting longer, even as sellers cut prices. Buyers are showing up, but they’re more selective than ever. Sellers still want 2021–2023 numbers, but that era is gone—and the market has made that clear.

If Q3 was the moment everyone admitted the slowdown was real, Q4 is the moment where the market begins to reorganize itself. Deals are still happening, but only for aircraft that meet today’s expectations: clean pedigrees, updated avionics, proper documentation, supportability, and minimal refurbishment needs.
Interest rates are coming down, bringing some buyers back. Sellers are becoming more realistic as the bid-ask gap finally begins to close. And with fewer aircraft coming to market, inventory is tightening even as demand softens.

At VREF, we focus on the real numbers—and this quarter, the numbers tell the story of a market that isn’t crashing or booming but sorting itself with surprising speed.

Q4 in One Sentence

Fewer aircraft are being bought and sold, but the ones that do
sell are selling faster—and at more realistic prices.

Retail Transactions: Down Sharply, Returning to 2020 Levels

Let’s begin with the headline:

Retail transactions dropped from 15,986 in 2024 to 13,212 in 2025, a 17% year-over-year decline for the first 11 months.

This puts activity right in line with 2020 levels.

Fewer deals signal several realities:

  • Buyers are cautious.
  • Sellers are selective or simply holding.
  • Financing friction remains.
  • The COVID-era rush to buy is entirely gone.

But that’s only half the story:

While the number of aircraft selling has dropped, the speed at which good aircraft sell has increased.

Days on Market: The Fastest Movers Are Moving Even Faster

This is one of the most surprising outcomes of Q4. Even with total transactions down, days on market (DOM) have fallen across nearly every major jet category.

Standouts:

Model 2024 DOM 2025 DOM Change
Challenger 350 105 Days 49 Days -53%
Global 6000 97 Days 67 Days -31%
Gulf Stream G550 134 Days 68 Days -49%

These are large, high-demand aircraft. For them to sell 50% faster in a softening market tells us something clear:

Buyers still want good airplanes—but they refuse to overpay.

Even historically slow movers—aircraft that usually sit for months—are suddenly clearing much faster. However, a critical nuance:

The aircraft selling quickly are the best examples in their category. Not the run-of-the-mill 601 that needs everything.

Examples:

  • Hawker 400XPR: 303 → 50 days
  • ACJ318: 300 → 93 days
  • Challenger 601-1A: 287 → 72 days
  • G-IV/G400: 287 → 83 days

These aren’t average airplanes. Nearly all were top-condition, turnkey fleet units. Refurbishment and supportability matter more than ever.

Why the pickup?

  • Buyers are tired of waiting.
  • Sellers are tired of holding.
  • Inventory is tightening.

Put it all together and we get a market that is faster and tighter—but lower in total volume.

Even the Worst Performers Are Beating 2024’s Worst

Last year, the slowest performers sat 240–300+ days on average.

This year’s worst performers still look better:

  • Westwind 1 — 145 days
  • Gulfstream G350 — 138 days (worse than 2024)
  • Lear 24E — 123 days
  • Falcon 20F-5 — 123 days
  • Hawker 800B — 118 days
  • ACJ320 — 118 days

These are older fleets with well-known challenges: high DOC, aging avionics, and shrinking support. Still, they’re performing better than last year’s bottom 10.

The truth:

  • Top-tier aircraft are gone instantly.
  • Mid-tier aircraft are adjusting, often reducing prices until a buyer steps in.
  • Older aircraft are moving, but mostly via all-cash or owner-financed deals.

This is not a hot market.

This is a sorting market.

Inventory Tightens: Fewer Listings, Fewer Removals

Inventory never lies—and this year, the story is unmistakable.

Total Aircraft Listed

  • 2024: 5,089
  • 2025 YTD: 4,090
    → 20% drop

Business Jet Listings

  • 2024: 19,541
  • 2025 YTD: 8,367
    → A major contraction

Commercial and helicopter listings also declined significantly.

Removals (Withdrawn or Sold Off-Market)

  • 2024: 2,064
  • 2025 YTD: 1,577
    → 24% decline

Which means:

  • Less coming on the market.
  • Less leaving the market.
  • Owners are simply holding.
  • This sets up a likely theme for 2026:

Low inventory + lower rates = a sharp snap-back in activity.

Asking Prices: A Split Market Emerges

Asking prices reflect seller expectations—not necessarily what buyers accept. But the direction matters.

Business Jets

  • 2024: $6.21M
  • 2025: $6.42M
    → Up 3.3%

Driven by:

  • Late-model demand
  • Clean pedigrees
  • Strong support networks
  • Thinning supply
  • Lower DOC aircraft

Commercial Aircraft

  • Down 23.1%

Driven by:

  • Oversupply
  • Restructuring
  • Weak global yields
  • Tariffs
  • Macro uncertainty

Helicopters

  • → Down 1.2%

Flat and stable

Across the board, a clear split has emerged:

  • Newer aircraft: appreciating
  • Mid-age aircraft: correcting
  • Older aircraft: stabilizing at baseline

This aligns precisely with trends we anticipated entering 2026.

Off-Market Transactions Surge: The Quiet Boom

This is perhaps the most important trend of Q4.

Off-market transactions in 2025 YTD nearly match all of 2024:

  • 2024: 1,215
  • 2025 YTD: 1,152

Why?

  • Sellers want discretion
  • Buyers want exclusivity
  • Family offices avoid bidding wars
  • Corporations want confidentiality
  • Brokers rely heavily on private networks
  • Speed matters more than visibility

Almost every long-range transaction reviewed in the last six months was off-market.

We expect off-market deals to exceed 2024 totals once December closes, meaning private deals now represent a larger share of total activity than at any point in the last decade.

This is the new normal.

Most Traded Aircraft: 2024 vs. 2025

Robinson continues to dominate global trading volume. The utility helicopter remains unmatched in training, parts support, and operational simplicity.

Top Traded of 2024

  • R44 Raven II — 563
  • R66 — 286
  • A320-200 — 232
  • 737-800 — 221
  • R44 Raven I — 212
  • H125 — 198
  • Baron 58 — 192
  • Bell 206B-3 — 170
  • PC-12 NG — 166
  • R22 II — 161

Top Traded of 2025

  • R44 Raven II — 409
  • R66 — 166
  • H125 — 162
  • PC-12 NG — 161
  • Citation Latitude — 161
  • A320-200 — 159
  • Vision Jet G2+ — 155
  • Baron 58 — 152
  • R44 Raven I — 149
  • Phenom 300 — 146

What the Data Says

  • Robinson dominates utility and training fleets.
  • PC-12 NG remains a global workhorse.
  • Latitude and Phenom 300 are the “Toyota Camry” of business aviation.
  • Light jets and turboprops drive most of the activity.

New Aircraft Models: Winners and Laggards

Most Traded (2020+)

  • Vision Jet G2+
  • Challenger 3500
  • TBM-960
  • Piper M700 Fury
  • Citation CJ4 Gen2

High utility, modern avionics, strong supportability. Predictable winners.

Least Traded

  • King Air 360ER
  • ACJ TwoTwenty
  • Learjet 75 Liberty
  • Gulfstream G800

Early-cycle activity shows light jets dominate while large-cabin entries remain constrained by production and limited fleet size.

Value Trends by Age: A Clear Separation

  • 0–5 years: +12.6% (tight supply + better financing)
  • 6–10 years: –12.8% (repricing after the bubble)
  • 10+ years: –1.4% (stable; depreciation largely baked in)

What this means:

  • Newer aircraft remain hot.
  • Mid-age aircraft are correcting.
  • Older aircraft move if priced correctly.

This trend will continue into 2026.

Fleet Deliveries: Private Ownership Takes the Lead

Fractional and shared ownership dipped in 2025, while wholly owned aircraft increased.

Ownership Breakdown

TYPE 2024% 2025 YTD
Fractional 49.1% 46.3
Shared 1.3 1.7
Wholly Owned 49.6 52.0

Why the shift?

  • Owners want control
  • Fractional economics struggle at higher rates
  • Charter margins tightening
  • Availability matters more than access

Part 91 vs Part 135 (Wholly Owned)

  • Part 91: ~87%
  • Part 135: ~13%

Most Popular Deliveries by Segment

Part 135:

  • 787-9
  • Caravan 208B EX
  • PC-12 NGX
  • G700
  • Global 7500

Part 91:

  • Vision Jet G2+
  • PC-12 NGX

The “sweet spot” continues to be simple, efficient, well-supported, and pilot-friendly aircraft.

Closing Thoughts: A Market Sorting Itself Out

This isn’t a boom.

This isn’t a bust.

It’s a sorting market.

  • Good aircraft sell fast.
  • Mediocre aircraft require realistic pricing.
  • Poorly supported aircraft sit.
  • Newer aircraft values are stabilizing or rising.
  • Mid-age values are adjusting downward.
  • Older aircraft are flattening.
  • Off-market deals dominate.
  • Inventory is tightening.
  • Falling rates are waking buyers back up.

At VREF, our mission is to help you cut through the noise and make informed decisions—whether you’re buying, selling, lending, insuring, or planning a fleet.

Thank you for trusting VREF.

Have a wonderful Holiday Season and a Happy New Year.

Here’s to a strong and dynamic 2026.

Jason Zilberbrand, ASA
President, VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services