Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal Services

Introduction

Hi everyone, and welcome to the very first episode of The Truth About the Market.

I’m your host, Jason Zilberbrand—President of VREF, long-time aviation appraiser, and someone who’s spent over three decades deep in this industry. I’ve worked with everyone from individual owners to Fortune 50 operators. I’ve testified as an expert witness in major litigation. I’ve seen more cycles than I can count.

This podcast is about cutting through the BS—no fluff, no marketing spin, no sponsors. Just the unfiltered truth about aviation, aircraft values, and the industry trends that actually matter.

Today, we’re tackling three big topics:

  • The summer slowdown
  • The impact of tariffs and supply chain issues
  • What the back half of 2025 might actually look like

The Pre-Owned Aircraft Market is Softening

What everyone sees—but not everyone wants to admit—is that the pre-owned aircraft market is softening quickly.

  • Inventories are rising across the board.
  • Days on market are increasing.
  • Even normally insulated categories like medium jets, light jets, and turboprops are affected.
  • Prices are coming down.

Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for direction. Geopolitical instability—two escalating wars and the potential for U.S. involvement—certainly isn’t helping.

Beyond Geopolitics: The Bigger Picture

While wars, interest rates, and stock market health are important, they don’t fully explain the current shift. Looking at the bigger picture:

  • Sales requests and financing requests are slowing.
  • Defaults are starting to rise.
  • This isn’t the usual seasonal pattern.

Seasonal Slowdowns vs. This Summer

For those new to the industry, summer is often slower:

  • Owners use their aircraft for vacations and events.
  • Kids are out of school.
  • Dealers prepare inventory in winter for spring sales.

On the business jet side, summers have historically been so slow that brokerages sometimes closed early on Fridays. But this summer feels different—there’s more going on.

Post-COVID Market Cycle

Typical ownership cycles run 3–5 years. Many aircraft bought during the post-COVID buying rush are now hitting the market—often at overpaid prices.

  • Prices are correcting back to pre-COVID levels.
  • Demand is also back to pre-COVID norms.
  • Trainer aircraft (C172, DA20, C182) remain strong due to limited supply, but all aircraft have a natural price ceiling—when they get too expensive, they compete with higher-category aircraft.

The Asking Price vs. Market Reality

There’s often a disconnect between asking prices on listing sites and VREF values.

  • Asking prices are just that—asking.
  • Owners tend to overvalue their own aircraft.
  • Buyers are savvy; they research, monitor markets, and wait for the right moment.

Advice for Buyers and Sellers

For Sellers:

  • Selling sounds simple but involves fielding calls, qualifying buyers, and handling repetitive questions.
  • Brokers can add value by filtering inquiries, recognizing serious buyers, and negotiating.
  • Being too close to the aircraft makes it hard to be unbiased in valuation.

For Buyers:

  • Research your market deeply.
  • Watch for aircraft that linger unsold—often a red flag.
  • Brokers or dealers can facilitate trades, absorb inventory, and make deals happen.

Tighter Lending & Financing Challenges

  • Lenders are stricter.
  • Loan-to-value ratios are lower.
  • Interest rates are higher.
  • Cash-ready buyers have an advantage.

Tariffs & Supply Chain Pressures

A major, ongoing issue:

  • Tariffs on imported parts from China and Europe.
  • Longer wait times for avionics and engine components.
  • Loaner engines are harder to get.
  • Costs are escalating and being passed to owners.

Real-world impacts:

  • Grounded aircraft waiting weeks for parts that used to take days.
  • Lost charter revenue and disrupted travel.
  • Escalating maintenance and repair costs with no clear cap.

Proactive owners can reduce impact by scheduling well in advance and leveraging local vendor networks.

Forecast for Q4 2025

Jason’s predictions:

  • The summer slowdown will preview the fall market.
  • By September/October, buying decisions will realign as the year-end approaches.
  • Interest rate changes could stimulate demand—especially in the $300K to $10M range.
  • Bonus depreciation won’t significantly boost the pre-owned market.
  • Airline inefficiency will continue to push high-net-worth travelers toward general and business aviation.
  • Charter and fractional ownership markets remain resilient.

Caution:

  • Expect more aircraft on the market.
  • Financing will continue tightening.
  • Credit deterioration will increase lender exposure.

Current Market Takeaways

  • The market is in a correction phase.
  • Tariffs and inflation are squeezing owners.
  • Ownership costs are climbing fast.
  • The best defense: Stay informed, plan maintenance early, keep insurance values updated.

How VREF Helps

  • Provides accurate, defensible, data-backed valuations and appraisals.
  • Works with lenders, insurers, brokers, and dealers.
  • Supports aircraft owners, buyers, and sellers directly.

Closing

This was the first episode of The Truth About the Market.

Next time: An Aircraft Buyer’s Checklist for 2025—a deep dive for anyone considering a purchase this year.

Contact:
📧 Jason@vref.com
🌐 vref.com